Comments on: AUD/JPY: Balancing act between reducing risk for weekend and staying on risk-reward trade https://fxww.com/audjpy-balancing-act-between-reducing-risk-for-weekend-and-staying-on-risk-reward-trade/ The Professional Source Sun, 01 Sep 2013 21:53:38 +0000 hourly 1 By: Sean Lee https://fxww.com/audjpy-balancing-act-between-reducing-risk-for-weekend-and-staying-on-risk-reward-trade/#comment-28666 Sun, 01 Sep 2013 21:53:38 +0000 http://381c099c8f.nxcli.net/?p=10415#comment-28666 I just think the R/R is ridculously good at current levels. 200 pip downside risk but if this npair turns then I can easily imagine USD/JPY 100+ and AUD/USD back near .9300?

]]> By: Kirill https://fxww.com/audjpy-balancing-act-between-reducing-risk-for-weekend-and-staying-on-risk-reward-trade/#comment-28602 Sat, 31 Aug 2013 00:39:14 +0000 http://381c099c8f.nxcli.net/?p=10415#comment-28602 Hi Sean, current situation reminds me a bit of you preaching long gbp/nzd couple months back))) I think I need to close my eyes and jump into it with some silly 300 pips below SL… Will assess it on Monday, and might try to time it a little bit, but I like the idea of trading your conviction)))) cheers

]]> By: Sean Lee https://fxww.com/audjpy-balancing-act-between-reducing-risk-for-weekend-and-staying-on-risk-reward-trade/#comment-28544 Fri, 30 Aug 2013 04:36:20 +0000 http://381c099c8f.nxcli.net/?p=10415#comment-28544 That’s what I’m saying Gus, best to cut or reduce the position ahead of the w/e and then not get caught up in silly Monday moves

]]> By: Sean Lee https://fxww.com/audjpy-balancing-act-between-reducing-risk-for-weekend-and-staying-on-risk-reward-trade/#comment-28543 Fri, 30 Aug 2013 04:35:26 +0000 http://381c099c8f.nxcli.net/?p=10415#comment-28543 Hi Peter, you make fair point and really there is no difference between either candidate in terms of effect on the AUD. Nevertheless, its always been the case in my experience where the right-leaning candidate (Reps in US, Tories in UK, CDU in Germany) wins the election the ccy gets a bit of a boost albeit s/t. Plus when positioning is heavy one way, it will tend to reduce pre risk event

]]> By: gus https://fxww.com/audjpy-balancing-act-between-reducing-risk-for-weekend-and-staying-on-risk-reward-trade/#comment-28542 Fri, 30 Aug 2013 04:24:32 +0000 http://381c099c8f.nxcli.net/?p=10415#comment-28542 Good point, Sean.
However, being too careful can also bite you.
Last Friday, I was short EURNZD.
Going into the weekend, I was up 40 pips and thought it’s safe to update my SL to +1.
Then, the weekend gap and the larger spread hit my SL right on Monday open and immediately went down again.
I missed a big potential profit.
It ain’t easy, is it?

]]> By: Peter https://fxww.com/audjpy-balancing-act-between-reducing-risk-for-weekend-and-staying-on-risk-reward-trade/#comment-28541 Fri, 30 Aug 2013 04:19:25 +0000 http://381c099c8f.nxcli.net/?p=10415#comment-28541 I posted the comments below on the Asian Open thread, but I’ll pop it in here, being more recent.

Hi Sean,
You may be right about the AUD rallying in response to a change of government. You’ve got a lot more experience than myself with these things, after all.
That said, it does seem a bit of a mystery to me why the markets would get too excited about an Abbott led government. This brief article in The Economist (I pinched the link from Forex Live) endorses Rudd mainly because he’s the least unappealing alternative (sounds like forex choices! lol). I’m not exactly enamoured with Rudd and Labor’s in a shambles, but looking at the alternative, I tend to agree with them on this one.

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21584343-kevin-rudd-just-about-deserves-second-turn-lucky-no-more

If there is a bit of election related short covering in the AUD, would it be because that’s simply what the market expects and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy?

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