Comments on: Taper or not, I’m not expecting a large USD rally

By: Brijesh

Brijesh — Fri, 13 Sep 2013 10:16:03 +0000

With you on this Sean. I can’t imagine why Taper would still be a surprise. Unless the taper amount is north of $20-25billion or surprise market with a quicker calendar, there would be no reason for USD to rally. Actually, it may even fall ‘on the news.’

EURUSD is likely to chop around but for nothing. With German elections running close, I doubt if large directional positions will be taken in 3-4 days time. German elections could be key to Euro though.

What we must be watching closely is the new appointment of Fed, that has a far more significant and long term implications than discounted taper.

Just my thoughts.

By: Tom

Tom — Fri, 13 Sep 2013 01:44:53 +0000

Hi Sean,
So, we can expect significant fall in metals after taper. But that is normally followed by a lower USDJPY, as in April 2013. But market talk is higher USDJPY after taper. So, what will be the expected behaviour of USDJPY after taper – sudden spike higher and then lower with metals or something else?

By: Abdullah Hussain

Abdullah Hussain — Fri, 13 Sep 2013 01:02:04 +0000

Morning Mike, no offence but Sean never said that tapering = no QE, he mentioned in a previous article few weeks ago that some people believed that the Fed Already began tapering possibly in august, and so we have already seen some adjustment in the market, in that case therefore it would be just a matter of announcing it formally, or if that is not the case, as Sean mentions, weither its 10 bl or 15 bl reduction, or whatever the amount per month, i dont think it will also make a Big difference as Sean Mentions! Im with you Sean, your first article on the topic had wheels in my head turning!

By: Mike

Mike — Thu, 12 Sep 2013 23:52:13 +0000

Tapering doesn’t mean no QE, just less. I am more interested in what Q1 2014 numbers will be.