Many thanks to the mine of information, David Scutt at Arab Bank, for some useful A$ facts to open proceedings for 2013:

  • The AUD has risen 43% of the time in January since it floated in 1983, for an average monthly gain of 3.17%:
  • When it’s fallen in January, the average loss has been 2.24%:
  • Australian stocks have enjoyed a positive January on 71.4% of times following on from a Santa rally:
  • Over the last 20 January’s, stocks have risen on 12 occasions by an average of 2.56%:
  • Side-note; the market is still pricing in a 63% chance of a rate cut next month.

Statistics would therefore suggest that we get a risk-on move this month and we may see the AUD/USD rise by over 3% which would take us close to 1.0700.