GBP/JPY: Good name taking profit after long-term play
I'm always interested to hear what these kinds of traders are up to; this big professional trader bought GBP/JPY in the low 130's late last year and has sold a slab over the last few hours, booking profits from an excellent trade.
I'd be very interested to know what has convinced him to sell now after all this time?
Cable: Looking bit heavy in early European trade
I sold 1/2 my long position overnight at 1.5315 and will look to buy it back on any big dips towards 1.5200. The fact that the overnight rally stalled at exactly the 61.8% retracement of 1.5600/1.5000 will be encouraging to the bears (just as the double bottom is encouraging to the bulls!). If we get another rally which stalls at 1.5370 then I will believe the bulls and exit my entire position.
(Sounds like a perfect scenario for 1.5170/1.5370 range trading!)
USD/JPY: Reducing shorts, looks like I might have the wrong levels
No point in hanging on to positions that I'm not sure about. I sold at 100.06 and 30 but have bought the latter part back for a tiny loss leaving me only with the original sales. I want to be short but I might get better levels to sell at I think.
EUR/USD: Retail sentiment remains overwhelmingly bearish
I'm sorry to say this, but if the retail market gets heavily biased in one direction they are usually 100% wrong!
A good friend at one of the bigger retail brokers tells me that both actual and order positioning are heavily skewed towards the bears; in other words the retail market is short already and looking to sell more on rallies. Anybody else hearing the same thing?
EUR/USD: Dealers eyeing stops below 1.3040
I cannot imagine why anyone would want to place a stop-loss order below 1.3040, right in the middle of the range, but there you go; it takes all sorts to make up a market.
USD/JPY: Taking a small short position
I think the break below 100 was a big event and now that we've had the usual Asian reversal, I'm opting for a small short position just above the big number; let's see what happens.
Edit: Adding smalls at hourly trendline near 100.30, but keeping overall positions small for now.
AUD choppy after RBA stays on hold; buy-dips preferred in short-term
No real surprises but it seems the market heard something bearish in the statement as AUD/USD went .9690 offered before jumping up to .9735 paid.
I prefer the short-term buy-dip play now that the RBA decision is behind us.
EUR looks like it could retrace somewhat on the crosses
- EUR/GBP has failed on 4 separate occasions above .8590 and looks susceptible to a sharp drop towards .8430.
- EUR/AUD has finally stalled its vertical rise near 1.3600 and could settle into consolidation mode.
- EUR/JPY needs to break below 129.10 in my opinion before bearish momentum really accelerates but the short-term trend is bearish.
- EUR/CHF briefly broke below market support at 1.2370 but hasn't sustained these losses.
If this EUR sentiment continues then we might see the EUR/USD drift back toward range lows near 1.2900.
AUD still edging lower into RBA
The AUD/USD is a bit tricky to trade at the moment with a strong downtrend in control but last night's price action suggesting that a retracement might be getting started.
Add in to the mix the minor risk event that is the RBA :) and we are certainly left with a conundrum.
I'm thinking that an unexpected 25 bps cut would see the AUD/USD back below .9650 and that 'no change' will see a mild relief rally towards .9775/85.
Australian current account balance data due in 15 minutes
I can't imagine that this data will make good reading although the market is expecting an improvement from last month's -A$15 billion. Forecasts are generally around -A$9 billion.
AUD/JPY has eased a bit this morning and is currently trading around the important pivot at 97.00.
Cable trade: Interim profit booked now wait and see
The double-bottom here has worked nicely and I've sold 1/2 my position at 1.5315 for a 135 pip gain and now can afford to sit back and see what develops. No doubt the market will start chasing its tail and start getting bullish but I think we will get plenty of opportunities here broadly between 1.52/1.55; let's hope so.
AUD market caught short; cautious now ahead of RBA
The market did its usual think of getting bearish at the wrong levels and then being forced to run for cover. AUD/JPY re-took the technical pivot at 96.90 despite a falling USD/JPY, which shows just how badly positioned the FX market was. EUR/AUD also fell hard as a long-overdue retracement got underway and AUD/USD starred as it blitzed through heavy trailing stops above .9700.
Today's big risk event is the RBA decision and whilst they are unlikely to cut again, I still think there is at least a 33% chance that they do. Recent soft data might sway them but the usually hawkish Stevens is more likely to be influenced by rising rates in the US; so 'no change' is still the likeliest outcome.
AUD/USD should be well supported now near .9700 and initial resistance comes in at .9840 ahead of the main technical target at .9930 (38.2% retracement of fall from 1.0580).
Cable: Looking to book interim profits at 1.5315
I've got an offer in for 1/2 my position at 1.5315; if done I will look to re-load on dips back towards previous resistance at 1.5240.
Cable looking well bid in early European trade
As I mentioned earlier, resistance in EUR/GBP above .8590 is also starting to look very solid indeed and with the possible double-bottom in cable, the GBP doesn't look like such a bad bet.
Short-term resistance levels are close by in the cable at 1.5240.
Majors staying quiet in mid-Asian trade
Nothing much to report in the majors; the AUD has made some small gains but I think European traders will have little problem in totally ignoring anything that's happened here.
I'm still running a small long cable position but I'm struggling to get any strong feel for the big levels. Once again its a case of hanging in there until hopefully the lights come on.
USD/TRY edging higher in thin trade
The riots and disturbances in Turkey are naturally unnerving the market and USD/TRY is about 80 pips higher in very thin markets. Any big moves are likely to happen in early European trade.
AUD holding onto gains despite miss on economic data
Retails sales came in slightly below expectations and job advertisements also fell from the previous month. Despite this, the AUD/USD is holding on to its gains from this morning and is still trading above .9600.
I've got no strong view on the AUD at current levels but as I said earlier, it does seem to be finding some support on the crosses with AUD/NZD the first one to break resistance levels.