USD/JPY: I still prefer the sell-rally play
Monday's range was 93.50/94.90 and I can't see any reason for not trying to trade this range again. There were no reports of any big flows overnight in any of the Yen pairs.
Medium term I think we are in a 91.00/96.50 consolidation phase so I need to be careful to get my position sizes right, and not get overly large mid-range.
AUD/USD: Barriers and stops
- Looks like there are some decent-sized barriers at 1.0500/05:
- Stops reported above 1.0510 and 1.0535:
- Short-term technical outlook looks bullish (see members) for test of 1.0600.
AUD/USD: Large topside stops
I know of quite a few people who are trying to pick a top near here in the AUD/USD, and I must admit that I'm also tempted, but I'm also hearing of large stop-loss buying interest above 1.0510 and again above 1.0535. Top-pickers, keep those stops tight and the really aggro bulls can consider adding to longs if it breaks, with trailing stops back below 1.0470.
Which reminds me of the trade idea from late February (in members) where a very canny medium-term trader went long near 1.0200 with a profit target at 1.12. He's not looking so silly now, best I look him up and eat some humble pie :(
Still waiting for a flash of inspiration
I find it very difficult to get any sort of a feel for markets which are hardly moving so best and wait for some volatility and hopefully get some good opportunities.
My biases remain the same, sell rallies in EUR/JPY, cable or AUD/USD; all I gotta do is figure out when the rallies are done. The other pair I like is AUD/NZD lower, but I've sworn off the dreaded Kiwi as it owes me enough already :(
Slow day for cable traders
A full 15 pip range in the last 10 hours says it all!
I favour the downside here after previous weekly lows near 1.5250 managed to broadly contain prices yesterday. My target is a return to levels near 1.5000 in the short-term.
EUR/USD: Weak trailing stops now above 1.2900
Pretty typical Asian session kills all momentum out of the market. Watch for trailing stops above 1.2900 in EUR/USD top come into view later on. Obviously the market isn't entirely comfortable about getting short at these levels and hence the tight trailing stops.
EUR/JPY: Technicals suggest we bears must be careful
I've updated the technicals in the members section and the daily chart does look like its forming a very nice wedge pattern, which is usually consolidative and indicative in this case of further gains to come? Perhaps I'll be a bit more patient this time before adding to my short position.
Asian market open
Apologies again, not quite with it today. Here's the link to my full opening comments on FX Street.
Slow morning in Asia
SOrry if I've been quiet this morning but I don't know what to add. The Yen crosses are headed lower, the EUR looks toxic and risk aversion is starting to ramp up.
None of that happening here in Asia this morning, with very quiet conditions prevailing.
AUD/JPY might be the next one to break lower
I'm back on a roll again in the crosses and my partial-profit target at 120.20 was hit last night in the EUR/JPY. I'm looking to sell any intraday rallies here and my targets remain at 117.50 and 112.00 on the downside.
AUD/JPY is still trading sideways in a 97.20/100.00 channel but if global risk aversion picks up then we could see a big sell-off in this pair? I favour selling any intraday rallies back towards 99.00 in expectation of a bearish break?
EUR steadying after early sell-off in Europe
In Asia this morning, we first had a sell-off in the EUR followed by a fairly sharp short-covering rally. Europe also started with a sell-off but momentum is waning there also.
I'm done for today, good luck trading and catch you tomorrow.
Waiting to see how the Russians will react to Cypriot bank laws
We saw recently how venomously Russia reacted to towards the US in the case of the death of an adopted Russian boy who died in the US. Now we must wait on the reaction of Russia after many of their nationals will almost certainly lose much if not all of their deposits in Laiki Bank and probably over 40% in the Bank of Cyprus.
Not sure what this might mean for the FX market, most probably some risk-aversion? Any strong thoughts anyone?
EUR/JPY back below 123.00; just one ripple away from a tsunami
I should have put up a headline like "FXWW legends monster EUR/JPY lower" but maybe not. :)
I still think there is a massive downside risk to the EUR from the developments in Cyprus and it will only take another very small ripple of discontent to cause a tidal-wave exodus from EZ asset markets. I certainly would not want to have money in the peripheral European banking system and perhaps that's paranoia on my part, but I'm guessing that I'm not alone.
EUR holding up for now as market eyes topside stops
Most of the big banks seem to be warning that any post-Cyprus-deal euphoria is likely to be short-lived but the EUR is holding up quite well near session highs and I think I know why! There are still plenty of shorts out there with tight trailing stops above 1.3075 in particular in EUR/USD, but also above 124.00 in EUR/JPY. I'm staying short EUR/JPY regardless as I think the major risk is to teh downside so I'm willing to risk a stop-run.
Beware of great deals and guaranteed profits in the FX market
I've received a few unfortunate e-mails this weekend regarding both dodgy brokers and dodgy trading schemes.
With regard to the first; when you are trialling a broker how about you do the following? Open a small account, trade a bit, withdraw some money and make sure that you receive all you asked for in a prompt and safe manner. If this happens, then the broker is most likely fully legitimate. There are some horror stories going around about accounts who are unable to withdraw their funds.
If you ever hear about anybody offering a guaranteed trading system then immediately ignore it, as there is no such thing. Robots and technical analysts offering supposed pathways to riches? I don't think so; if they were any good they'd be making fortunes for themselves. Certainly there are trade-pickers who can improve on the chances of picking a good trade from 50:50 to say 65:35, but it's always what you do with the good and bad trades which differentiate winners from losers.
Cable stops were triggered in early interbank market
There was an early gap higher in cable this morning when the interbank market opened, as soon as 1.5250 got paid stops were triggered and the market gapped to 1.5280. A decent sized seller immediately entered the market and drove prices back below 50. I prefer staying in sell-rally mode but we might see higher levels in early London if there are more stops about.
Margin FX accounts could be severely affected by Cypriot events
I'm still trying to piece the whole story together but at this stage it seems that many margin FX account holders in Cyprus may fall under the "uninsured" banner. This will mean that all or part of their accounts are at risk.
If anyone has more information on this situation, then please advise us through this thread.
EUR stops being reported topside
EUR/USD stops now reported above 1.3075 and EUR/JPY stops reported above 124.00.
I cannot see anything bullish about this Cyprus deal so rallies are selling opportunities in my very biased opinion.