Not seeing too many clear-cut trades at the moment
- EUR/JPY still looks soft but the risk-reward in selling at current levels is not very attractive, and the same applies to USD/JPY.
- EUR/USD should find plenty of support from 1.3350 through 1.3270 and the big Prime Brokers all mention plenty of buying interest, but with the EUR crosses all looking soft, we may well see these levels tested.
- AUD/USD also looks soft but with biggish barrier protection at 1.0250, risk-reward at current levels is poor.
- Cable does look like it may be a reasonable short somewhere soon but that 'somewhere' could be 100 pips higher so again, patience needed.
- EUR/CHF does offer good risk-reward above 1.2250 but the trailing stops below 1.2240 (mine included) are likely to be plentiful.
In other words, not much jumping out at us so far today. Maybe Europe will get things moving in a few hours.
Looks like I won't get a USD/JPY rally to sell into
USD/JPY is drifting lower in quiet Asian trade and all those short-term bears may not get levels near 93.50 to sell into. I will still avoid selling weakness as the bull trend has been so strong and could easily reignite.
Asian market open
You can click through here and read my full opening comments on FX Street.
I'll be back a little later on when it hopefully gets a bit busier.
Short-term technicals updated
I've updated the following pairs in the members section:
- EUR/JPY: In retracement mode with scope for 121.00; resistance now firming 125.50/126.00.
- EUR/USD: Overall outlook still bullish but retracement could test 1.3270.
- EUR/CHF: Re-testing important support at 1.2260.
Chinese New Year should ensure quiet day in Asia
Morning all. Happy New Year to all those celebrating the Lunar version and I'm expecting a quiet few days, at least during the Asian session. Australia is the only main financial centre open today.
Focus will be on the Yen ahead of the G20 meeting, with Japanese authorities weakening their JPY-negative rhetoric or in some cases reversing it. They are worried about stoking up the currency wars and that should mean that the USD/JPY and JPY crosses are more of a 'sell-rally' proposition for the next few sessions.
Good luck this week.
EUR/JPY: Close to intraday target at 124.00
I think we will be paying a lot closer attention in future to the intraday flow guy who called this perfectly.
Have a great weekend and catch you on Monday.
USD/JPY: Sitting on support on 93.15
The market is currently sitting right on previous highs which have become support, at 93.15. Yesterday one of the shorter-term hedge funds suggested that if 93.15 breaks, they will look for selling opportunities keeping subsequent stops above 94.20 and targeting levels near 89.00.
Edit: Now broken so look to sell any rallies back to 93.40 with stops above 94.20.
EUR/USD: Intraday orders
- Sell orders reported 1.3420/25 with stops above 1.3430.
- Buyers reported 1.3365/70.
Looks like I'm not going to get on for that cable trade
My trade of the day from this morning is looking unlikely to materialise and I'm always increasingly unwilling to take a trade as the weekend beckons. Best I stick with my current positions (long EUR/CHF and USD/CHF) and try and reduce pre-weekend risk rather than increase it!
Strong Chinese export numbers give risk trades a boost
Looks like the Asian market has got very little interest today with only small moves happening after the RBA and this Chinese data.
Chinese exports were +25% YoY, much stronger than expected, and AUD/USD has popped up to 1.0290 and EUR/JPY is back near 125.50.
China CPI is out later this afternoon and it looks like it will stay quiet until then.
AUD/USD dips after RBA monetary policy statement
Nothing remarkable in the quarterly statement with GDP and inflation expectations pretty much in line with expectations.
AUD/USD dipped to 1.0260 but dealers are reporting bids at 1.0250 which should hold for now. Offers reported at 1.0330/40.
The AUD is overall bearish but there might be some decent buy-dip opportunities for intraday traders.
EUR/JPY: Early selling out of Tokyo but bounces straight back
Looks like the information was quite accurate but there has been little or no follow through after the initial dip.
The 15-minute charts suggest a 125.30/65 holding pattern before the next move materialises.
EUR/JPY: Intraday flow guy goes short
Normally the information from this source is quite good. He's looking to initiate shorts around 125.50 as he expects some selling flows during Tokyo trade. He thinks we may see 124.00 quite soon. Let's monitor this one and see how good he is.
Trade of the day: Buy cable at 1.5670
I haven't done a trade of the day for a while but I really do like an intraday long cable play near current levels. The market pivoted around the previous support level at 1.5670 for a few sessions but yesterday's spike higher tells me that we may be in for some more short-term gains.
I'm looking to buy near 1.5670 for a move back above 1.5850 where I will probably look to reverse the position into a more medium-term short trade.
Short-term technicals updated
I've updated EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY and EUR/CHF in the members section. You can also access them via Twitter (@Sean_lee_forex).
- EUR/USD: In retracement mode but buying dips from 1.3350 through 1.3270 (previous resistance band) is definitely preferred.
- EUR/JPY: Looks to be trying to form a rounding top formation.
- USD/JPY: Obvious parameters at 93.10/94.10.
- EUR/CHF: Important Fibo support at 1.2260 still holding.
Bit of market research help please
Both this blog and the main FXWW website are undergoing some major renovations so if you have any suggestions or preferred requirements, please let me know.
Sorry I'm away for the evening but will check back in later for some ECB and BOE volatility. Thanks in advance for the suggestions.
One of the quieter sessions in recent weeks
Very little to report today with the NZD making the biggest move and that was only a 50 pip dip after slightly disappointing jobs data. The AUD is back where it started after as-expected employment numbers and the Yen finally took a rest after weeks of gyrations.
ECB and BOE later today so traders are glad to take a break before more volatility erupts.